Insights — New Program Development Should Start with Analysis of Recent Trends

In recent years, SimpsonScarborough has conducted numerous studies designed to measure the demand for potential new programs, and the strong performance of master’s degree programs in analytics at NCSU and Northwestern showcases exactly why program demand research should start with an understanding of recent trends. Let’s assume, for example, that your institution is considering building a master’s program in sustainability, a master’s in social work or a bachelor’s in apparel and textiles. Where do you start? Combing through IPEDS data (which is probably readily available to you through your institutional research department) can show you how many degrees have been awarded in each of these three disciplines and how that number has changed in recent years. The prevailing wisdom is that you would be better off to invest in a program that is large and/or growing than one that is small and/or dying. So how do these three potential programs stack up?

• Master’s in Sustainability Studies: very small number of degrees awarded in the U.S. in 2012, but the number of degrees awarded has increased by 246% since 2007—it’s a small niche, but one that is growing very rapidly.
• Master’s in Social Work: very large number of degrees awarded in the U.S. in 2012, with a 25% increase since 2007—clearly, there is huge demand for this program, and it is showing solid growth.
• Bachelor’s in Apparel and Textiles: very small number of degrees awarded is in 2012, with a 20% decline since 2007—a clear indicator that the two programs above have greater potential.

Of course, final decisions regarding development of new programs must also take other factors into consideration. What is the cost to develop and run the program? Does it fit with the institutional image, values and strategic plan? Do you have faculty who can teach the program? Will you be able to recruit new faculty? And so on. But analysis of recent trends using IPEDs data is a great way to identify whether or not a new program under consideration by your institution is even worth studying further.